Probably Stolen is won by buying the deed to your shop from the landlord before rising rent buries you. For a first run, start as the Apprentice, which the developers call the best scenario for beginners, on a lower difficulty. Make steady money from legal goods, appraisals and water before you touch contraband, and learn the eight aug warning signs before you pick up the gun.
This Probably Stolen guide pulls together what Questing Goose Studio and tinyBuild have published since the October 28 launch: the 1.0 notes, both hotfixes and the 21 Steam achievements. Community findings from the Steam guides and forums are added where the official notes say nothing, and they are labelled as such. Everything was checked on October 29, 2026 at 05:30 UTC against patch 1.0.0.2.
Table of Contents
Probably Stolen guide: quick answer
- How to win: own the store deed (achievement “Keys to the Kingdom”). Doing it before day 50 earns “Prodigious”.
- Best first scenario: Apprentice (a generalist start). Rock Bottom starts you with nothing and is the hardest.
- Money basics: buy at wholesale, keep enough cash to buy what customers bring in, and check the calendar for market events before you open.
- Water in 1.0.0.2: the Moisture Farm now costs 350 credits (it was 650 at launch) and a Water Filter costs 25 (was 50).
- Augs: the Security guide lists 3 visual and 5 non-visual signs (table below). Since playtest patch 48.3.10, missing too many augs only ends your run on Hard Mode.
- Contraband: high margins, but it brings raids. Hide it in a Smuggler Bay before inspections, or bribe the trade board official.
The Security Department's aug checklist. This customer opens with "Initiating communication. I am a normal human." Image: Questing Goose Studio / tinyBuild
Probably Stolen at a glance
| Detail | Official info |
|---|---|
| Release | October 28, 2026, 2:00 p.m. CET / 9:00 a.m. EDT / 6:00 a.m. PDT |
| Platform | PC (Windows) on Steam. Steam rates it “Playable” on Steam Deck |
| Price | $19.99 / £16.99 / €19.99. The 10% launch discount ($17.99) runs until November 11, 17:00 UTC |
| Developer / publisher | Questing Goose Studio / tinyBuild |
| Content | 9 starting scenarios, 4 difficulty options, 21 achievements, Steam Workshop mods |
| Current version | 1.0.0.2 “Water Balance & Hotfix” (October 28, 23:28 UTC) |
According to the developers’ day-one update, the game sold 200,000 copies in its first few hours and peaked at more than 86,000 concurrent players. If you played the demo, your saves carry over, but the studio “strongly” recommends a fresh start so you don’t miss the new storylines.
How do you win Probably Stolen?
You play a former scavenger who got a storefront on a space station through a loan. Rent goes up over time, and the ending is buying the store from the landlord. The 1.0 overview says a win shows your full run stats: your most profitable sale, days survived, total worth and perks earned. The same post asks new players not to start with Sentinel Collapse Disorder on their first run: “Seriously, don’t.”
The official achievement list works well as a checklist of milestones for a first save:
| Achievement | Goal | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Comfortably Afloat | Start a day with more than 10,000 credits in estimated total wealth | Your first big target. It counts total wealth, not just cash |
| Authorized | Own the business permit | A mid-game licence step |
| Industrious | Own 10 machines at the start of a day | Production scales the late game |
| Shiny | Start a day with 1,000 store attractiveness | Attractiveness brings in more customers |
| Diplomatic | Reach maximum reputation with any faction | Focus on one faction |
| Swimming in Credits | Start a day with more than 100,000 credits in total wealth | Late-game scale |
| Keys to the Kingdom / Prodigious | Own the store deed / own it before day 50 | The win, and the speedrun version |
| Clean Hands | Win without selling a stolen or contraband item | An honest run is possible |
Best starting scenario for beginners
Version 1.0 has nine starting scenarios. Each comes with its own stock, tools and kind of trouble. The descriptions below come from the developers’ launch post and 1.0 overview. The “Who it suits” column is our reading of those descriptions.
| Scenario | What you start with (official) | Who it suits |
|---|---|---|
| Apprentice | A generalist shop. “Best for beginners”; upgrade as you go | Your first run |
| Water Merchant | Water testing, purifying and labelling gear. “Liability is yours” | Players who like a clear production loop |
| Aquafarmer | Tilapia and recirculating aquaculture systems | Patient players. The devs call it slower and more beginner-friendly than rat ranching |
| Hydroponic Farmer | Hydroponic machines and farming supplies | Long-term growers (genetically modified crops later) |
| Fence | Stolen goods. “Move fast, stay invisible” | Players ready for Security pressure |
| Gunsmith | Class 1 weapon permit plus firearms and ammo | High margins, with inspections |
| Chemist | A chemistry lab with closely guarded recipes | Experienced players (addiction and repeat customers) |
| Rat Wrangler | Rat breeding | An odd side mode. Its achievement calls it “the hidden scenario” |
| Rock Bottom | Nothing. “Maximum difficulty” | Challenge runs only |
After you pick a scenario, you choose one of four difficulties, from beginner-friendly to “super hard”. The developers suggest pairing super hard with Rock Bottom for an extra challenge. Junker, Organ Trader and Street Food Vendor starts are planned for post-launch updates.
How to make money in Probably Stolen
The Steam page sums up the risk of each product line: “weapons bring inspections, chemicals bring addiction, water brings liability, contraband brings raids.” The safest early money comes from legal flips and services. Players on the Steam forums keep repeating the same habits:
- Keep buying cash. If you spend everything on upgrades, you can’t buy the cheap stock customers bring in during the day. Upgrade only when rent and fresh stock are already covered.
- Buy wholesale and sell on demand. Check the calendar next to the nightly report before you open, and compare an item’s base price with its current estimate.
- Trade space for speed. When storage gets tight, players say a small discount that clears stock faster can earn more per day, and it also builds faction reputation.
- Appraise. Players call the appraisal licence “free money for raw brain power”. The achievement “An Eye for Value” asks for 10 perfect appraisals.
- Sell overnight. Vending Machines (new in 1.0) keep selling after you close.
Day 9, rent due in 5 days: the counter view, with the Security Wanted board and its bounties on the left. Image: Questing Goose Studio / tinyBuild
Market events to watch
Market events change prices for a few days. These numbers come from the community guide “Events and You” (adapted from the official Discord, updated October 28). They are community data, not official figures.
| Event | Price change | Length |
|---|---|---|
| Water supply crisis | +100% water and water rations, +90% beverages, +80% purification supplies | 3 days |
| Water supply surplus | -25% water and rations | 2 days |
| Who turned out the lights? | +100% energy cells, +25% weapons | 2 days |
| Medical supplies shortage | +50% medical | 2 days |
| Bad Nutrifruit harvest | +50% food | 3 days |
Stock up when prices drop and sell into shortages; water stores well, so it suits this best.
Use the display case to pick your customers
The display case is how you choose which customers turn up. According to the community guide “Display case and You”, a neon sign (water, food, material, medical, household) has a 75% chance to turn one random customer into a seller of that kind of goods. Goods you put on display attract buyers by tag, and the total value per tag sets the buyer’s tier: 1-144 credits brings tier 1, 145-349 tier 2 and 350+ tier 3. If store attractiveness drops below 100, the case stops bringing in buyers. Don’t put more signs in than you have customer slots. The lower-priority signs then compete for the same visitor and rarely trigger.
How to purify water after the 1.0 hotfixes
Water changed the most at launch. Players on Steam complained about the launch nerfs to water, and hotfix 1.0.0.2 rebalanced it the same night:
| Change in 1.0.0.2 | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Moisture Farm price | 650 credits | 350 credits |
| Water Filter price | 50 credits | 25 credits |
| Dr. Jackson’s stock markup (Normal) | 25% | 15% |
| Water Purifier | Logic reworked “to be more intuitive” | |
The basic loop, from the 1.0 community guide “Water Trading Made Easy”:
- Drop a water purification pill into the container. In 1.0, filters no longer remove microbes, so you need a pill or a UV lamp.
- Fit a water filter to the pitcher and pour the untreated water through it.
- Pour the filtered water into one big container (the starting 6L jug) and test it once with a strip. Testing one big batch saves strips.
- Label it and put your best water in the display case to attract high-budget buyers.
The guide’s other advice: don’t sell your starting jug, don’t hoard bottles that eat storage space, and always test large bottles from sellers before you buy, because water sellers often mislabel their stock. The author wrote “do not buy a moisture farm” before the hotfix cut its price nearly in half, so check that advice against the new 350-credit price. Relabelling water as a better grade is possible, but buyers with test strips catch it, and the guide warns of “late-term” consequences.
Contraband, Security and the trade board official
Stolen goods, counterfeits and narcotics carry the best margins and the most risk. Security collects evidence, opens investigations, and then fines or arrests you. Here is what the official patch notes tell you about the system:
- Hide before inspections. Smuggler Bays protect stock during inspections. Hotfix 1.0.0.1 fixed bays wrongly losing items when kept in the trash can or behind the poster (Mini Smuggler Bay).
- Bribes work. The Update 049 notes confirm that items donated to the trade board official count toward a bribe, at full value even inside a container. Wild can be hired to remove evidence, and the fixer can lower your record.
- Timing: the Security officer now visits the morning after an investigation completes, and the sentence is set when the officer arrives.
- No easy reputation: since playtest patch 48.3.12, flashing contraband in the display case and then hiding it no longer earns Security reputation.
- Reporting pays: the Model Citizen perk raises the credit bonus for reporting criminals to 50%, and “Snitches Get Riches” asks you to report 10.
How to spot augs in Probably Stolen
A rogue AI chip has taken over some of the station’s residents, and they look like everyone else “until they don’t”. The Security Department’s Augmented Identification Guide, shown in an official screenshot on the store page, lists these signs:
Appraisal guides set the price rules: cybernetic hands start at 100 credits (minimum 50), and gold plating adds 200. Image: Questing Goose Studio / tinyBuild
| Visual features | Non-visual features |
|---|---|
| Visible aug chip | Unnatural stillness |
| Unusual pupils | Twitching |
| Uncanny expression | Outfit not matching their faction |
| Robotic vocabulary | |
| Overly formal phrasing |
Misreading the signs is costly, so wait for more than one sign before you shoot. Since playtest patch 48.3.10, missing too many augs only ends your run (the “Augmented” ending) on Hard Mode, and the 1.0 notes don’t mention a change. Some essential recurring customers can’t be shot, and since 1.0.0.2 that includes Lou on every visit. Dr. Jackson sells an aug scanner while the threat lasts, and “Aug Hunter” asks for 10 confirmed shots. Players on the forums count aug bounties among the best early money on a Rock Bottom start.
Best perks to start with
Starting perks cost points at character creation. These effects come from the official patch notes. Which perks are “best” is still being worked out by players two days after launch.
| Perk | Effect (official) |
|---|---|
| Model Citizen | 50% credit bonus for reporting criminal customers |
| Intimidating | Cuts evidence generation by 33%; costs 2 points |
| Diplomatic | Boosts reputation gains (a bug that also boosted losses was fixed in Update 049) |
| Addiction perks (e.g. Gambling Addiction) | An 8% trading penalty, withdrawal from day one, and one related item to start with |
For a first run, Intimidating (less Security trouble) or Model Citizen (honesty pays) suit the Apprentice start. Leave addiction perks for challenge runs.
What’s coming next
The developers promise free content updates: the Junker, Organ Trader and Street Food Vendor starts, Expeditions where you recruit people for runs, new appraisal items, and a main-story expansion that will change the station and the ending. If you like this kind of shop management, our Supermarket Simulator pricing guide and best licences order cover the most popular store sim. For a darker crime-business sim, see our Schedule 1 console commands. For another numbers-heavy tycoon, try our Mad Games Tycoon 2 sliders guide.
FAQ
How do you buy the store in Probably Stolen?
Buying the store deed from the landlord is the game’s ending and unlocks “Keys to the Kingdom”. You need enough wealth while also keeping up with rent, which rises over time. Doing it before day 50 also unlocks “Prodigious”.
Is Probably Stolen on Steam Deck, Mac or consoles?
It is a Windows game on Steam. Valve rates it “Playable” on Steam Deck. No Mac, Linux or console versions have been announced.
Do demo saves carry over to the full game?
Yes, but the developers recommend a new save to see the new storylines and avoid bugs. Mods made for the demo probably won’t work in 1.0.
How much does Probably Stolen cost?
$19.99 in the US, or $17.99 with the 10% launch discount until November 11 at 17:00 UTC. A Supporter Edition adds the soundtrack, and there are bundle discounts if you own TCG Card Shop Simulator, Potion Craft, ReStory, Backpack Battles or Graveyard Keeper 2.
Sources: Steam store page; developer posts on Steam (launch, 1.0 overview, hotfix 1.0.0.1, hotfix 1.0.0.2, Update 049, patch 48.3.10); Steam achievements; Steam community guides (water, events, display case).
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Featured image: AI-generated illustration
